In the coming years, disruptive innovations such as AI, robotics, autonomous mobility, additive manufacturing, and renewable materials – will join together and form a new tech stack for how we make, move, and use physical products in society. The manufacturing playbook of the past will see a successor taking charge, flipping traditional best practices on their heads. New business models such as product-as-as-service, the sharing economy, reshoring, and circularity – could all become scaled realities.
In this edition of Welcome to The Future, we focus our attention to how the tech stack for manufacturing could reshuffle – and what type of companies could be prospective winners.
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When a set of extremely potent disruptive innovations join forces and multiply each others’ abilities and strengths – it usually leads to a novel platform for how economic activity is conducted. A new platform for market actors to migrate over to. To build new products on top of.
Historically, we’ve had three distinct such platforms: the first, second, and third industrial revolutions. These revolutions did not come about in a vacuum or from a single type of innovation. They are the results of several decades long iterations of multiple disruptive innovations, both improving on their own but also strengthening each other.
In the first industrial revolution, we saw the steam engine, power loom, the electromagnet, railways and locomotives, the telegraph, and limited liability companies – all forming on their own but also reinforcing each other. Then we had steel, the internal combustion engine, oil and gas, electricity, planes, the telephone, radio, and the gold standard – forming the second industrial revolution.
And then the third industrial revolution, since the mid-mark of the 20th century, we’ve had plastics, robotics, advanced alloys, large shipping boats, computers, the internet, cell phones, and fiat currencies – among many hundreds of other disruptive innovations and ways to harness the value of natural resources.
In 20 years from now, the likelihood of the global economy reshuffling itself with an entirely new equilibrium of how, what, why, and where, we make physical goods and products – should be close to a 100%.
The fourth industrial revolution, that we’ve entered over the past few years (arguably), is largely about how the physical fabric of society will become fully digital (Internet of Things) and embedded with AI, that makes most physical products into some degree of a problem-solving robot. Not all products obviously, but probably a majority – will undoubtedly convert.
This and a massive proliferation of renewable energy and storage of energy, will change the economic rationale of how to structure and conduct manufacturing.
A NEW MANUFACTURING EQUILIBIRUM IS FORMING
First off, when robots become equally as good as humans to conduct a specific utility, and can do this to a lower cost, higher speed, and almost constant uptime (no sleeping or breaks, etc.) – it increases the likelihood of manufacturing companies partly switching to a business model where access is the main economic lever, not units. Usership, instead of ownership. We’ll pay for utility a lot more, compared to predominantly owning the product that produces the utility today. Think robots that vacuum floors, cleans buildings, welds metal, serves food, lifts stuff, sort packages, etc.
Secondly, these robots need to be moved much more seamlessly than is the case today. So, when vehicles become autonomous, robots will be supported by a significantly less costly mobility infrastructure, and consequently one that can support a profitable sharing economy.
The sharing economy has long been a promising key to lower carbon emissions but has not yet delivered. Most likely, the sharing economy needs a “next-mile” mobility infrastructure to really proliferate and change our collective view on consumption in general. The current “last-mile” infrastructure does not favor a peer-to-peer system.
Thirdly, if we have hundreds of millions of robots that can solve problems better than traditional products can, and when they are able to swiftly move from place to place to conduct this problem-solving – the economic rationale to have a factory close to the point of consumption could explode.
But this might not be enough, as the labor cost arbitrage that low-wage countries have on high-wage countries could still be too large. However, when companies like Figure, Tesla, Xpeng, Agility Robotics, and 1X Technologies, excel (potentially) in their missions to make general-purpose robots more capable and less costly than their human counterpart in factories – this cost-arbitrage will most likely be broken.
And then fourthly and lastly. The theses above paint a picture where the manufacturing complex is a lot more distributed around the world. From centralized to distributed. In such model, and tied to the prospective new incentive of making products more durable and renewable in a usership business model, it makes so much more sense to source physical materials through a distributed model as well.
Instead of using newly mined materials, it could make economic sense to source materials from depleted products instead. Such economic incentive could lead manufacturing companies to invest into higher-quality materials that can be renewed and that can be produced locally. Or in other words; renewable materials and additive manufacturing, could have substantial relevance in the future.
EXEMPLIFYING SELECTED PIONEERS
The 165 selected companies below exemplifies the forming of a new manufacturing tech stack, placed in relevant market stacks. In the latter part of this research piece, we both exemplify a few of them, and provide an even longer list of companies further on in this research piece.
NEW INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDED
TO RESTRUCTURE OUR GLOBAL LINEAR ECONOMY
Let’s say we have all of these incredible innovations in place some 20 years from now, and that they’ve actually caused substantial ripple effects for how and where we make physical goods and products.
This would no doubt mean that the current structure for our global manufacturing complex would partly transform to something new. To something where we have factories that are a lot closer to the point of consumption, where sharing holds a meaningful share commerce, where durability, refurbishing, and renewability is prioritized, and where vertical integration has replaced at least some of the assembly-light factories out there.
This would mean that we would have a very different technology stack for manufacturing compared to today – with hundreds of specific novel niches emerging and becoming meaningful TAMs (Total Addressable Markets) for both companies and investors. Everything from purpose-built actuators, AI chips, and light-weight components, to 3D vision, metal powder for additive manufacturing, autonomous mobility and bionic hands – will together form a new tech stack.
Having a new tech stack, which in manufacturing terms means a new supply chain network, and having factories closer to the point of consumption – are two massive challenges that won’t be built in a few years (decades more likely), but together they could form the groundworks for a new manufacturing infrastructure that supports circular applications (physical products). Currently, our linear infrastructure does not support the systemic scaling of circular applications.
Historically, an infrastructure usually needs to be in place before applications can scale and proliferate. Think roads before cars, electric grid before appliances, computers before internet and websites, and charging stations before electric vehicles. This is not rocket science, as history cannot be any clearer on this, but it seems as if society at large conducts a strategy where economic activity should convert from linearity to circularity – without building a new infrastructure for it to succeed.
In my personal view (I might be dead wrong...let’s see in 20 years...) we need to “build new” instead of “convert the old”. Past market disruptions are usually initiated through something new coming into a marketplace, rather than a conversion of the old. The new technology stack discussed in this research piece is not the norm when discussing solutions to the systemic pollution that’s still increasing – but it should be.
Autonomous mobility, general-purpose robots, renewable materials, AI chips, additive manufacturing, and other disruptive innovations – should all be considered interlinked and part of a cohesive unit that becomes the next big manufacturing tech stack.
RESHORING – THE NEXT SPACE RACE
Over the past half-century, high-wage countries have continually offshored manufacturing of goods and products. This has been exacerbated over the past 20 years as e-commerce has raised efficiency and cut middlemen out of the value chain. We have fast-consumption ruling the game of manufacturing. Most manufacturing sectors are about just-in-time and deliver as quickly as possible to the lowest cost. This has been, and still is, the manufacturing playbook to beat one’s competitors.
And furthermore, in the political arena, the term ‘protectionism’ has been somewhat of a negative term while ‘globalization’ has been the positive counterpart. And rightfully so when it comes to uplifting billions out of poverty around the globe over the past century. Finding the lowest labor-cost on the planet, just-in-time assembly, and then shipping swiftly to customer – is what globalization means. But the repercussion of this has been fortified linear economic model that has been difficult to break.
Going forward we could however soon see a substantial reversal of physical globalization (not cultural) and that a novel technology stack will enable protectionism to take charge, which will enable a circular economic model.
We already substantial signals for this, predominantly in the US where current US Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, have likened the prospect of reshoring to that of the space race between the US and Soviet more than a few decades ago. When AI embeds itself into the physical fabric of society, meaning that most physical products have AI installed within – the data that flows through these products will be paramount to own. The US does not want anyone else to have data on their citizens, and they do not want to be too reliant on anyone else. And they want to thrive economically, of course.
We also have Y Combinator, an American investment and accelerator firm, being crystal clear that they are increasing their focus on manufacturing startups. Jared Friedman, Partner at Y Combinator, recently said the following:
“We want to fund more startups that are bringing manufacturing back to America. The next decade is going to see a resurgence in Silicon Valley startups making physical things. We have strong government support behind us, and we have robotics which is going to enable us to automate our factories"
And then we have Reshoring Initiative, which is an American non-profit focused on helping companies to understand the upside of having manufacturing close to the point of consumption. The founder of the Reshoring Initiative, Harry Moser, brilliantly discusses the upsides (and status) of reshoring manufacturing in a conversation for the TechEd Podcast (link).
In short, he explains that the US faces a 45% manufacturing cost gap with China, but that in a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis – half of the cases in this study actually favors reshoring, when accounting for hidden costs like tariffs, geopolitical risks, and supply chain disruptions.
SELECTED PIONEERING COMPANIES
Let’s end with exemplifying a few companies that can be considered being pioneers for the future described in this research piece. And again, just to be crystal clear so that the message really hits home – it is the combination of these companies, the different parts of a novel tech stack in other words – that in due time could become the norm of how to discuss the fourth industrial revolution and the future transition from a linear to a circular economy.
Treat these companies as examples of pioneers and a way of creating engagement for finding hundreds of equally or better investment opportunities. In the link next to each company, you’ll find a standardized research report made by Sircular’s AI-investment research Copilot.
Nvidia, based in the United States, is a leading designer of GPUs and AI accelerators crucial for high-performance computing. They originate from the early graphics industry and have since diversified into AI, robotics, and data centers. Their long-term mission is to power the entire AI stack, driving advances in perception, decision-making, and simulation for automated systems.
Ouster, based in the United States, produces high-resolution digital lidar sensors essential for machine perception and spatial understanding. Originating from the autonomous vehicle and robotics ecosystem, Ouster has continually refined solid-state lidar technology to be more reliable, affordable, and versatile. Their long-term mission is to provide robust sensing solutions that enable safe and efficient navigation for robots, vehicles, and automated equipment.
Nuro, from the United States, develops small, autonomous delivery vehicles designed primarily for local goods transportation. Spun out of the Silicon Valley autonomous mobility community, Nuro focuses on last-mile delivery robots that are safe and environmentally friendly. Their long-term mission is to reduce congestion, emissions, and distribution inefficiencies by autonomizing delivery logistics.
Zoox, an American autonomous vehicle company now owned by Amazon, designs ground-up, fully electric, driverless shuttles for urban mobility. They hail from the Silicon Valley AV ecosystem and have challenged traditional car design principles by creating symmetrical, bidirectional vehicles. Their long-term mission is to provide safe, zero-emission, on-demand urban transport solutions that reshape city landscapes.
Tesla, founded in the United States, is known for its electric vehicles but also invests heavily in robotics (e.g. Optimus humanoid) and autonomous systems. Rooted in EV innovation, Tesla now pursues full autonomy, humanoid robots, and highly automated giga-factories. Their long-term mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy and advanced automation. In the manufacturing stack, Tesla’s fully automated factories, robot-driven production, and AI-driven supply chains serve as a model for future smart manufacturing ecosystems.
Udelv, from the United States, develops autonomous, electric delivery vans to streamline last-mile logistics. Coming from the on-demand delivery and autonomous driving sector, Udelv’s focus is on efficient, driverless cargo transport. Their long-term mission is to make local deliveries faster, greener, and more cost-effective.
Starship Technologies Link to Sircular research
Starship Technologies, originating from Estonia with global operations, builds small, autonomous delivery robots that traverse sidewalks. Emerging from the robotics and last-mile delivery sphere, their robots handle groceries and parcels safely and efficiently. Their long-term mission is to create convenient, zero-emission local delivery services accessible to all communities.
Zipline, originating from the United States and operating globally, specializes in autonomous drone delivery of medical supplies and essentials. Born out of the need for instant access to critical resources, Zipline provides rapid, reliable, and low-carbon transport. Their long-term mission is to make vital goods – medicine, vaccines, spare parts, immediately available anywhere.
Redwood Materials Link to Sircular research
Redwood Materials, founded in the United States by a former Tesla CTO, focuses on recycling EV batteries into raw materials. Emerging from the EV and energy storage sectors, Redwood Materials seeks to close the loop on valuable metals and minerals. Their long-term mission is to create a sustainable circular supply chain for batteries, reducing the environmental impact of resource extraction.
Arris Composites, based in the United States, develops continuous carbon fiber composite manufacturing technology. Coming from the advanced materials and additive manufacturing space, they enable lighter, stronger, and more efficient components. Their long-term mission is to replace heavy, resource-intensive parts with high-performance composites that reduce energy consumption and waste.
Sila Nanotechnologies, Inc. Link to Sircular research
Sila Nanotechnologies, originating in the USA, creates silicon-based anode materials for lithium-ion batteries. Rooted in battery and energy research, Sila aims to increase energy density, reduce costs, and improve sustainability. Their long-term mission is to deliver better batteries for EVs, robotics, and energy storage, thus enabling widespread electrification.
LanzaTech, from the United States, converts carbon-rich waste gases into sustainable fuels and chemicals via microbial fermentation. Emerging from industrial biotechnology, they divert emissions into valuable feedstocks. Their long-term mission is to drive a circular carbon economy, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and cutting emissions.
Impossible Objects, Inc. Link to Sircular research
Impossible Objects, based in the USA, specializes in composite-based additive manufacturing (CBAM) for lightweight, durable parts. Coming from the advanced materials and 3D printing domain, they revolutionize how strong, complex components are fabricated. Their long-term mission is to provide a manufacturing method that surpasses traditional processes in speed, strength, and design freedom.
ExOne, originally from the United States, pioneered binder jetting 3D printing technology for metals and ceramics. Emerging from industrial additive manufacturing, ExOne focused on serial production capabilities. Their long-term mission was to make 3D printing practical for large-scale manufacturing, reducing waste and lead times.
Prophesee, from France, develops event-based vision sensors that mimic human vision, capturing changes efficiently. Coming from neuromorphic engineering, they offer ultra-low-latency perception ideal for high-speed robotics and automation. Their long-term mission is to power cameras that “see” the world more intelligently, reducing processing overhead and energy consumption.
Terabee, originating in Europe, provides lightweight, high-performance Time-of-Flight (ToF) sensors for distance measurement and obstacle detection. Emerging from drone, robotics, and IoT contexts, they focus on compact, energy-efficient sensing. Their long-term mission is to enable smarter environmental understanding at the edge, powering navigation and collision avoidance.
OpenAI, born in the United States, advances AI capabilities and ensures they benefit all humanity. The company produces cutting-edge models like GPT that drive natural language understanding and decision-making tools. Their long-term mission is to align powerful AI with human values, ensuring safe and widespread utility. Integrated into manufacturing, OpenAI’s models accelerate simulation, planning, language-based robot programming, and decision support systems that improve factory intelligence and adaptability.
Graphcore, from the United Kingdom, designs Intelligent Processing Units (IPUs) specifically for AI workloads. Coming from the AI hardware space, they push beyond traditional CPUs and GPUs for more efficient training and inference. Their long-term mission is to unlock new frontiers in AI computation, enabling models too complex for older architectures. In the manufacturing stack, Graphcore’s IPUs power advanced AI models that optimize supply chains, orchestrate robotics, and improve predictive maintenance.
Crosser - Stream Analytics & Integration Link to Sircular research
Crosser, based in Sweden, delivers low-code streaming analytics and integration software for edge computing in industrial IoT. Emerging from industrial digitalization, they help companies run analytics and AI at the source of data. Their long-term mission is to simplify data-driven decision-making on the factory floor, reducing latency and reliance on cloud. Within the manufacturing stack, Crosser’s platform assists in real-time monitoring, optimization, and event-driven automation that keeps advanced factories running efficiently.
Figure, from the United States, develops AI-driven humanoid robots intended for general-purpose tasks. Rooted in robotics and AI, they blend mechanical design with advanced control algorithms. Their long-term mission is to make humanoids practical assistants in factories, logistics, and beyond. Integrated into the manufacturing ecosystem, Figure’s robots could one day perform complex manual tasks, reshaping labor dynamics and increasing flexibility.
Apptronik, based in the USA, builds versatile humanoid and mobile robots designed to coexist with humans in industrial settings. Emerging from academic robotics research, they emphasize safety, adaptability, and ease of use. Their long-term mission is to deploy robots that lighten repetitive, dangerous work, and augment human capabilities. In the manufacturing stack, Apptronik’s humanoids and mobile units enable dynamic reconfiguration of assembly lines, bridging labor gaps and increasing productivity.
ANYbotics, from Switzerland, manufactures legged robots (ANYmal) that navigate challenging, uneven terrain for inspection and maintenance tasks. Originating from ETH Zurich’s robotics labs, they focus on robust, field-deployable robotic solutions. Their long-term mission is to improve safety, efficiency, and reliability in environments too complex or hazardous for standard wheeled robots. Within the manufacturing ecosystem, ANYbotics’ solutions help factories automate inspections, reduce downtime, and maintain infrastructure with minimal human intervention.
Kinova, a Canadian robotics company, produces lightweight robotic arms for assistive, research, and industrial tasks. Emerging from the need for assistive technology, they have expanded into collaborative automation. Their long-term mission is to simplify automation deployment, making robots accessible tools for diverse users. In manufacturing, Kinova’s arms integrate easily, enhancing assembly processes, quality checks, and material handling, supporting smaller factories seeking simple automation.
Plus One Robotics Link to Sircular research
Plus One Robotics, from the United States, specializes in AI vision software enabling robots to handle variable objects in logistics and e-commerce. Spun out of the need to handle unstructured item picking, their software grows smarter over time. Their long-term mission is to combine human and robot expertise—robots handle bulk, repetitive tasks, humans solve exceptions. In manufacturing’s extended supply chain, Plus One Robotics ensures that warehouse robots handle mixed-item streams efficiently, bridging the gap between automated factories and distribution centers.
All the best and until next time,
Christopher Lyrhem
Chief Future Officer at Sircular
FULL LIST OF COMPANIES (231 in total)
Below is a table of companies, of all shapes and sizes, sorted by sector. In the attached PDF, the quality is way nicer.
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